Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Cavaliers MEM @ CLE

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

37-19  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sun, Feb 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

46-10  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 points (Cleveland)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

11.6%

Cavaliers Cover

88.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -11.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

MEM By 1-7 points

8.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

2.2%

CLE By 1-7 points

20.2%

CLE By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
119.45
MEMPHIS
131.38
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
112
MEMPHIS
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.9
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 250.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 CLE @ MEM 142 - 126
Nov 15, 2025 MEM @ CLE 100 - 108
Mar 14, 2025 CLE @ MEM 133 - 124
Feb 23, 2025 MEM @ CLE 123 - 129
Apr 10, 2024 MEM @ CLE 98 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
Cleveland: 9.9 vs Memphis: 6.9
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
Cleveland: 30.4 vs Memphis: 24.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Cleveland: 40.2% vs Memphis: 32.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Cleveland: 51.8% vs Memphis: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 119.5 123
CLE Score 131.4 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 32.3 27.7 / 38.5
Assists 30.4 / 24.3 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.7 / 6.1 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 44.1 46.5 / 45.7
Free Throw % 76.9 / 75.1 68.6 / 77.4
Rebounding 49.3 / 49.3 57.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.9 / 6.9 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 15.4 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MEM
CLE
MEM
ML
60% 69-46
57% 59-44
56% 55-44
50% 41-41
ATS
67% 75-37-3
63% 65-38
56% 55-44
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 68-47
70% 71-31-1
100% 99-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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