EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
34-18-4 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
37-11-8 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ty Emberson
#49 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Emberson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.00 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.00
--
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
OILERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
EDM By 1 goal
18.4%
EDM By 2-3 goals
35.9%
WSH By 1 goal
7.8%
WSH By 2-3 goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
4.55
EDMONTON
Washington
2.8
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Edmonton
2
EDMONTON
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Oilers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.8
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
WSH @ EDM
5 - 6
Nov 19, 2025
EDM @ WSH
4 - 7
Feb 23, 2025
EDM @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 21, 2025
WSH @ EDM
3 - 2
Mar 13, 2024
WSH @ EDM
2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+42.1% more
Edmonton: 5.5
vs
Washington: 3.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+54.1% more
Washington: 17.1
vs
Edmonton: 11.1
Hits (L5)
+26.8% more
Washington: 16.9
vs
Edmonton: 13.3
Power Play % (L5)
+12.5%
Washington: 33.1%
vs
Edmonton: 20.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
4.6
3
WSH Score
2.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.1 / 11.1
9.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
47.2 / 46.6
55.1 / 44.9
Hits
16.9 / 13.3
15.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
33.1 / 20.6
100.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
30.3 / 29.5
35.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.2 / 5.5
4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
EDM
WSH
EDM
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Penguins Trade Hallander to Oilers for Defenseman Stastney
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…