TIJUANATIJUANA
4-2-3 | Home
1
LEÓNLEÓN
5-2-3 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
28%
DRAW
26%
LEÓN
46%
--
DRAW
--
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.4
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
39.4% / 60.6%
Shots (On Goal)
9(3) / 11(2)
Corners
3 / 10
Cards (Y/R)
0/0 - 2/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)
Tijuana By 1 goal
17.2%
Tijuana By 2+ goals
10.3%
León By 1 goal
24.2%
León By 2+ goals
23.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tijuana
1.1
TIJUANA
León
1.5
LEÓN
Simulated Score
Tijuana
2
TIJUANA
León
1
LEÓN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
León
Loss
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tijuana
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tijuana (+0.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +0.4
C
Sim
Tijuana (-0.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u2.75
Win
Proj Total: 2.6
C
Sim
o2.8
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 24, 2026
Tijuana vs León
1 - 0
Mar 21, 2026
León vs Tijuana
2 - 3
Mar 18, 2026
Tijuana vs León
5 - 0
Mar 14, 2026
León vs Tijuana
0 - 3
Jan 31, 2026
León vs Tijuana
2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+14.3% more
León: 8.0
vs
Tijuana: 7.0
Losses (L5)
+300.0% more
Tijuana: 0.0
vs
León: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+266.7% more
Tijuana: 3.0
vs
León: 11.0
Draws (L5)
+200.0% more
Tijuana: 2.0
vs
León: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
León Score
1.5
0
Tijuana Score
1.1
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Tijuana (Home)
vs
León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.60
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.1 - 1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
León
Tijuana
León
ML
22%
2-7
50%
5-5
44%
4-5
30%
3-7
ATS
75%
6-2-1
57%
4-3-3
50%
4-4-1
29%
2-5-3
TTL
67%
6-3
37%
3-6
44%
4-5
47%
4-5