Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlante vs América Atlante vs América

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 24 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLANTE
19%
DRAW
21%
AMÉRICA
60%
--
DRAW --
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 95%
Under 0 5%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (América)
AtlanteAtlante (+3.5) 0 AméricaAmérica (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

37.5% / 62.5%

Shots (On Goal)

8(4) / 20(8)

Corners

2 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

Atlante By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

4.8%

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1.1
ATLANTE
2.1
AMÉRICA
Simulated Score
0
ATLANTE
2
AMÉRICA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Atlante Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim América Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI América (-1) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim América (+1) Push
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.2
A
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 24, 2026 Atlante vs América 1 - 1
Mar 15, 2026 América vs Atlante 2 - 0
Oct 24, 2025 Atlante vs América 2 - 2
Apr 19, 2025 América vs Atlante 5 - 0
Nov 1, 2024 Atlante vs América 0 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Atlante: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Atlante: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +75.0% more
América: 7.0 vs Atlante: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Atlante: 5.0 vs América: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 2.1 1
Atlante Score 1.1 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 19.1% Draw: 20.5% Away Win: 60.3%
Atlante (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 62.0% Under 2.5: 38.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.20
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlante Share: 34.4% América Share: 65.6%
AI Projected Score 1.1 - 2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlante
América
Atlante
América
ML
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
10% 1-9
78% 7-2
ATS
59% 5-3-1
50% 4-4-1
27% 2-5-2
100% 7-0-2
TTL
20% 2-8
56% 5-4
70% 7-3
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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