TOLUCATOLUCA
6-2-2 | Home
1
UNAMUNAM
3-3-4 | Away
2
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
35%
DRAW
26%
UNAM
39%
--
DRAW
--
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.1
TOLUCA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
66.3% / 33.7%
Shots (On Goal)
17(4) / 8(3)
Corners
9 / 1
Cards (Y/R)
1/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Toluca +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Toluca)
Toluca By 1 goal
20.2%
Toluca By 2+ goals
14.3%
Pumas UNAM By 1 goal
22.0%
Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toluca
1.3
TOLUCA
UNAM
1.4
UNAM
Simulated Score
Toluca
2
TOLUCA
UNAM
1
UNAM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pumas UNAM
Win
39% Win Prob
C
Sim
Toluca
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Toluca (+0.75)
Win
Proj Goals: +0.1
B
Sim
Toluca (-0.75)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 2.7
C
Sim
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 21, 2026
Toluca vs UNAM
1 - 2
Mar 3, 2026
UNAM vs Toluca
2 - 3
Aug 16, 2025
Toluca vs UNAM
1 - 1
Jan 29, 2025
UNAM vs Toluca
1 - 1
Oct 5, 2024
Toluca vs UNAM
1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+250.0% more
Toluca: 7.0
vs
UNAM: 2.0
Wins (L5)
+100.0% more
Toluca: 2.0
vs
UNAM: 1.0
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Toluca: 1.0
vs
UNAM: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+66.7% more
Toluca: 3.0
vs
UNAM: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score
1.4
2
Toluca Score
1.3
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Toluca (Home)
vs
Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.70
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.3 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Pumas UNAM
Toluca
Pumas UNAM
ML
60%
6-4
50%
5-5
60%
6-4
22%
2-7
ATS
50%
4-4-2
47%
4-5
75%
6-2-2
12%
1-7
TTL
33%
3-6-1
68%
6-3
67%
6-3-1
65%
5-3