Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Puebla Cruz Azul vs Puebla

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Tue, Jul 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
27%
DRAW
27%
PUEBLA
46%
--
DRAW --
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 7%
Under 0 93%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.4
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (+3.5) 0 PueblaPuebla (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

67.1% / 32.9%

Shots (On Goal)

22(7) / 10(4)

Corners

7 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

39.5%

Cover

60.5%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

17.2%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

10.3%

Puebla By 1 goal

24.2%

Puebla By 2+ goals

23.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
CRUZ AZUL
1.4
PUEBLA
Simulated Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
0
PUEBLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Puebla Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Cruz Azul Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +0.4
A
Sim Cruz Azul (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 2.4
A
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 21, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 2 - 1
Jan 17, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1 - 0
Oct 31, 2025 Puebla vs Cruz Azul 0 - 3
Jan 25, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1 - 1
Oct 18, 2024 Puebla vs Cruz Azul 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Cruz Azul: 0.0 vs Puebla: 3.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 3.0 vs Puebla: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Cruz Azul: 7.0 vs Puebla: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Cruz Azul: 4.0 vs Puebla: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.4 1
Cruz Azul Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 26.9% Draw: 27.0% Away Win: 46.1%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 43.0% Under 2.5: 57.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.40
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 41.7% Puebla Share: 58.3%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
Puebla
Cruz Azul
Puebla
ML
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
ATS
44% 4-5-1
62% 5-3-2
44% 4-5-1
64% 4-2-3
TTL
44% 4-5-1
44% 4-5-1
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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