Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs América Queretaro vs América

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Jul 18 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
12%
DRAW
39%
AMÉRICA
49%
--
DRAW --
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
1.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 14%
Under 0 86%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.6
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 goals (América)
QueretaroQueretaro (+3.5) 0 AméricaAmérica (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

37.6% / 62.4%

Shots (On Goal)

10(2) / 17(5)

Corners

2 / 12

Cards (Y/R)

6/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

34.5%

Cover

65.5%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around América -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

Querétaro By 1 goal

15.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

8.1%

América By 1 goal

25.2%

América By 2+ goals

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0.3
QUERETARO
0.9
AMÉRICA
Simulated Score
1
QUERETARO
2
AMÉRICA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Querétaro Win
28% Win Prob
D
Sim América Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI América (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
C
Sim América (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.2
B
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 18, 2026 Queretaro vs América 0 - 1
Mar 7, 2026 Queretaro vs América 1 - 2
Aug 9, 2025 América vs Queretaro 1 - 0
Jan 10, 2025 Queretaro vs América 0 - 1
Jul 12, 2024 América vs Queretaro 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
H2H Wins +400.0% more
América: 4.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
H2H Goals Scored +250.0% more
América: 7.0 vs Queretaro: 2.0
H2H Goals Conceded +250.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +28.6% more
América: 9.0 vs Queretaro: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 0.9 1
Querétaro Score 0.3 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 11.9% Draw: 38.8% Away Win: 49.2%
Querétaro (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 12.1% Under 2.5: 87.9%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 1.20
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 25.0% América Share: 75.0%
AI Projected Score 0.3 - 0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
América
Querétaro
América
ML
22% 2-7
67% 6-3
22% 2-7
78% 7-2
ATS
71% 5-2-2
50% 4-4-1
25% 2-6-1
100% 7-0-2
TTL
62% 5-3-1
56% 5-4
50% 4-4-1
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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