GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA
5-3-2 | Home
0
TOLUCATOLUCA
6-2-2 | Away
2
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
3%
DRAW
16%
TOLUCA
81%
--
DRAW
--
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
34%
Under 0
66%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.8
TOLUCA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 goals (Toluca)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
39.7% / 60.3%
Shots (On Goal)
13(4) / 14(9)
Corners
9 / 2
Cards (Y/R)
2/1 - 2/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Toluca -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Toluca)
Guadalajara By 1 goal
4.9%
Guadalajara By 2+ goals
1.4%
Toluca By 1 goal
22.8%
Toluca By 2+ goals
57.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Guadalajara
0.2
GUADALAJARA
Toluca
2
TOLUCA
Simulated Score
Guadalajara
1
GUADALAJARA
Toluca
2
TOLUCA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Toluca
Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toluca
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Toluca (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.8
C
Sim
Toluca (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u2.75
Win
Proj Total: 2.2
C
Sim
o2.8
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 18, 2026
Guadalajara vs Toluca
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
H2H Goals Scored
+600.0% more
Toluca: 7.0
vs
Guadalajara: 1.0
H2H Goals Conceded
+600.0% more
Toluca: 1.0
vs
Guadalajara: 7.0
H2H Wins
+300.0% more
Toluca: 3.0
vs
Guadalajara: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+75.0% more
Toluca: 4.0
vs
Guadalajara: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score
2.0
2
Guadalajara Score
0.2
0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Guadalajara (Home)
vs
Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.20
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
0.2 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Toluca
Guadalajara
Toluca
ML
50%
5-5
60%
6-4
60%
6-4
60%
6-4
ATS
86%
6-1-3
50%
4-4-2
57%
4-3-3
75%
6-2-2
TTL
83%
7-1-1
33%
3-6-1
56%
5-4-1
67%
6-3-1