Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs Puebla Juárez vs Puebla

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-0-9  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 17 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
51%
DRAW
23%
PUEBLA
25%
--
DRAW --
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 24%
Under 0 76%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.6
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 goals (Juárez)
JuárezJuárez (+3.5) 0 PueblaPuebla (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

64.5% / 35.5%

Shots (On Goal)

13(1) / 13(5)

Corners

5 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

65.5%

Cover

34.5%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

25.2%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

27.4%

Puebla By 1 goal

15.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.8
JUÁREZ
1.2
PUEBLA
Simulated Score
1
JUÁREZ
1
PUEBLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim Puebla (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 17, 2026 Juárez vs Puebla 0 - 1
Apr 3, 2026 Puebla vs Juárez 1 - 1
Oct 24, 2025 Juárez vs Puebla 4 - 4
Mar 29, 2025 Juárez vs Puebla 2 - 0
Sep 27, 2024 Puebla vs Juárez 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Juárez: 6.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
H2H Wins +200.0% more
Juárez: 2.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Juárez: 1.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
H2H Goals Scored +42.9% more
Juárez: 10.0 vs Puebla: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.2 1
FC Juárez Score 1.8 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 51.4% Draw: 23.1% Away Win: 25.4%
FC Juárez (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 60.0% Puebla Share: 40.0%
AI Projected Score 1.8 - 1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
Puebla
FC Juárez
Puebla
ML
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
50% 5-5
ATS
38% 3-5-2
62% 5-3-2
78% 7-2-1
64% 4-2-3
TTL
56% 5-4-1
44% 4-5-1
78% 7-2-1
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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