LEÓNLEÓN
5-2-3 | Home
2
ATLASATLAS
5-2-3 | Away
3
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
72%
DRAW
16%
ATLAS
12%
--
DRAW
--
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
93%
Under 0
7%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.6
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 goals (León)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
45.9% / 54.1%
Shots (On Goal)
16(8) / 9(7)
Corners
6 / 2
Cards (Y/R)
2/1 - 2/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around León -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)
León By 1 goal
24.2%
León By 2+ goals
52.7%
Atlas By 1 goal
6.1%
Atlas By 2+ goals
1.9%
AI Model Projected Score
León
2.6
LEÓN
Atlas
1
ATLAS
Simulated Score
León
2
LEÓN
Atlas
1
ATLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
León
Loss
91% Win Prob
A
Sim
León
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
León (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
B
Sim
León (-0.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.6
A
Sim
o2.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 17, 2026
León vs Atlas
2 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
Atlas vs León
0 - 0
Apr 4, 2026
León vs Atlas
2 - 0
Oct 22, 2025
Atlas vs León
2 - 0
Jul 26, 2025
León vs Atlas
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+133.3% more
León: 7.0
vs
Atlas: 3.0
Wins (L5)
+100.0% more
León: 2.0
vs
Atlas: 1.0
H2H Wins
+100.0% more
León: 2.0
vs
Atlas: 1.0
H2H Goals Scored
+33.3% more
León: 4.0
vs
Atlas: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Atlas Score
1.0
3
León Score
2.6
2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
León (Home)
vs
Atlas (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.60
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.6 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
Atlas
León
Atlas
ML
50%
5-5
60%
6-4
30%
3-7
40%
4-6
ATS
57%
4-3-3
47%
4-5
29%
2-5-3
42%
4-5
TTL
37%
3-6
80%
8-2
47%
4-5
50%
5-5