Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Cruz Azul Atl. San Luis vs Cruz Azul

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
13%
DRAW
19%
CRUZ AZUL
67%
--
DRAW --
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.3
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 goals (Cruz Azul)
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+3.5) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.6% / 54.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(5) / 20(10)

Corners

4 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

19.3%

Cover

80.7%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

8.4%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

3.1%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

25.6%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

44.7%

AI Model Projected Score
0.8
ATL. SAN LUIS
2.1
CRUZ AZUL
Simulated Score
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
2
CRUZ AZUL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Cruz Azul Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.3
C
Sim Cruz Azul (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.9
B
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 17, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Cruz Azul 2 - 3
Mar 7, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 0
Aug 11, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs Cruz Azul 1 - 2
Mar 15, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 0
Sep 17, 2024 Atl. San Luis vs Cruz Azul 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 0.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 2.0
H2H Wins +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 3.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 1.0
H2H Goals Scored +125.0% more
Cruz Azul: 9.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 4.0
H2H Goals Conceded +125.0% more
Cruz Azul: 4.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 2.1 3
Atlético de San Luis Score 0.8 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 13.1% Draw: 19.4% Away Win: 67.4%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 55.4% Under 2.5: 44.6%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.90
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 27.6% Cruz Azul Share: 72.4%
AI Projected Score 0.8 - 2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Cruz Azul
Atlético de San Luis
Cruz Azul
ML
30% 3-7
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
ATS
56% 5-4-1
44% 4-5-1
62% 5-3-2
44% 4-5-1
TTL
32% 3-6
44% 4-5-1
68% 6-3
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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