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NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Home

2
FINAL
Thu, Jul 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
73%
DRAW
19%
ATLANTE
8%
--
DRAW --
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 51%
Under 0 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.5
NECAXA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Necaxa)
NecaxaNecaxa (+3.5) 0 AtlanteAtlante (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

64.2% / 35.8%

Shots (On Goal)

11(5) / 12(3)

Corners

11 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

84.1%

Cover

15.9%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Necaxa -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Necaxa)

Necaxa By 1 goal

24.8%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

50.0%

Atlante By 1 goal

6.8%

Atlante By 2+ goals

2.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NECAXA
0.5
ATLANTE
Simulated Score
1
NECAXA
1
ATLANTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Necaxa Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Necaxa (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
B
Sim Atlante (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.5
D
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 16, 2026 Necaxa vs Atlante 2 - 1
Apr 3, 2026 Necaxa vs Atlante 2 - 1
Feb 27, 2026 Atlante vs Necaxa 1 - 0
Nov 7, 2025 Atlante vs Necaxa 1 - 1
Jul 26, 2025 Necaxa vs Atlante 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
H2H Wins +400.0% more
Necaxa: 4.0 vs Atlante: 0.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Necaxa: 2.0 vs Atlante: 1.0
H2H Goals Scored +100.0% more
Necaxa: 8.0 vs Atlante: 4.0
H2H Goals Conceded +100.0% more
Necaxa: 4.0 vs Atlante: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlante Score 0.5 1
Necaxa Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 73.1% Draw: 18.7% Away Win: 8.2%
Necaxa (Home) vs Atlante (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 45.6% Under 2.5: 54.4%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.50
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 80.0% Atlante Share: 20.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
Atlante
Necaxa
Atlante
ML
40% 4-6
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
10% 1-9
ATS
60% 6-4
59% 5-3-1
60% 6-4
27% 2-5-2
TTL
60% 6-4
20% 2-8
90% 9-1
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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