TOLUCATOLUCA
6-2-2 | Home
1
ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS
3-3-4 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
35%
DRAW
31%
ATL. SAN LUIS
35%
--
DRAW
--
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
TOLUCA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
61.4% / 38.6%
Shots (On Goal)
24(10) / 8(1)
Corners
3 / 1
Cards (Y/R)
3/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Toluca 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Toluca)
Toluca By 1 goal
21.1%
Toluca By 2+ goals
15.9%
Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal
21.1%
Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toluca
1
TOLUCA
Atl. San Luis
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Simulated Score
Toluca
TOLUCA
Atl. San Luis
ATL. SAN LUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
2
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
Toluca vs Atl. San Luis
1 - 1
Aug 29, 2025
Atl. San Luis vs Toluca
1 - 3
Apr 16, 2025
Atl. San Luis vs Toluca
0 - 1
Aug 25, 2024
Toluca vs Atl. San Luis
2 - 1
Apr 19, 2024
Atl. San Luis vs Toluca
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
H2H Wins
+500.0% more
Toluca: 5.0
vs
Atl. San Luis: 0.0
Losses (L5)
+300.0% more
Toluca: 0.0
vs
Atl. San Luis: 3.0
H2H Goals Scored
+250.0% more
Toluca: 14.0
vs
Atl. San Luis: 4.0
H2H Goals Conceded
+250.0% more
Toluca: 4.0
vs
Atl. San Luis: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score
1.0
1
Toluca Score
1.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Toluca (Home)
vs
Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Atlético de San Luis
Toluca
Atlético de San Luis
ML
60%
6-4
30%
3-7
60%
6-4
50%
5-5
ATS
50%
4-4-2
56%
5-4-1
75%
6-2-2
62%
5-3-2
TTL
33%
3-6-1
32%
3-6
67%
6-3-1
68%
6-3