LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
33-21 | Road
123
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
37-19 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
LAKERS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
LAL By 1-7 points
19.0%
LAL By 8-14 points
8.4%
DEN By 1-7 points
27.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
22.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
122.89
LOS ANGELES
Denver
127.6
DENVER
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
97
LOS ANGELES
Denver
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 250.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
DEN @ LAL
125 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
LAL @ DEN
113 - 120
Jan 20, 2026
LAL @ DEN
115 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DEN @ LAL
108 - 120
Mar 14, 2025
LAL @ DEN
126 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.1% more
Denver: 31.3
vs
Los Angeles: 26.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Denver: 40.0%
vs
Los Angeles: 32.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Denver: 53.1%
vs
Los Angeles: 47.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+28.9% more
Los Angeles: 18.3
vs
Denver: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
122.9
123
DEN Score
127.6
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 32.9
39.0 / 39.0
Assists
31.3 / 26.1
28.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.3
1.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
53.1 / 47.4
40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
80.6 / 79.6
76.2 / 84.0
Rebounding
49.9 / 47.2
45.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.2
6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 18.3
22.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LAL
DEN
LAL
ML
54%
57-48
61%
68-43
55%
47-39
54%
49-42
ATS
63%
65-38-2
61%
67-43-1
55%
47-39
54%
49-42
TTL
54%
56-48-1
61%
66-43-2
100%
86-0
100%
91-0
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