WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
36-11-8 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
23-25-9 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.00 | 0.906 | -- |
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 7.04 | 0.824 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
7.04
0.906 Ldr
Save %
0.824
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
CAPITALS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
31.1%
PIT By 1 goal
11.2%
PIT By 2-3 goals
8.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.27
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
2.12
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
PIT @ WSH
3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026
PIT @ WSH
0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ PIT
6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025
WSH @ PIT
3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
WSH @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+27.0%
Washington: 37.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+133.1% more
Pittsburgh: 6.5
vs
Washington: 2.8
Hits (L5)
+34.6% more
Pittsburgh: 20.0
vs
Washington: 14.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.6% more
Pittsburgh: 17.4
vs
Washington: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.3
8
PIT Score
2.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.4 / 14.2
17.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
48.9 / 49.7
57.9 / 42.1
Hits
20.0 / 14.8
15.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
10.1 / 37.1
50.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 30.5
32.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
6.5 / 2.8
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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