MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
36-19 | Road
105
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
28-29 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
MAGIC
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
MEM By 1-7 points
21.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
10.5%
ORL By 1-7 points
27.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
20.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
112.17
MEMPHIS
Orlando
115.32
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Orlando
107
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
ORL @ MEM
109 - 126
Jan 15, 2026
MEM @ ORL
111 - 118
Feb 21, 2025
MEM @ ORL
105 - 104
Oct 26, 2024
ORL @ MEM
111 - 124
Mar 30, 2024
MEM @ ORL
88 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+18.3% more
Orlando: 6.7
vs
Memphis: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+24.4% more
Memphis: 15.6
vs
Orlando: 11.8
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
Memphis: 25.5
vs
Orlando: 19.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Memphis: 37.8%
vs
Orlando: 30.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
112.2
105
ORL Score
115.3
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 37.8
29.0 / 21.2
Assists
19.6 / 25.5
23.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.7 / 5.6
9.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 45.5
40.9 / 41.3
Free Throw %
72.6 / 74.7
69.7 / 75.9
Rebounding
47.1 / 47.4
50.0 / 53.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.9
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 15.6
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MEM
ORL
MEM
ML
61%
65-42
57%
59-44
56%
51-40
50%
41-41
ATS
64%
68-38-1
63%
65-38
56%
51-40
50%
41-41
TTL
57%
61-46
70%
71-31-1
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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