Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Pacers MEM @ IND

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

36-18  |  Road

113
FINAL
Thu, Feb 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

30-23  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

62.8%

Pacers Cover

37.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

20.5%

IND By 1-7 points

21.2%

IND By 8-14 points

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
121.98
MEMPHIS
118.71
INDIANA
Simulated Score
106
MEMPHIS
119
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MEM @ IND 125 - 106
Oct 25, 2025 IND @ MEM 103 - 128
Feb 20, 2025 MEM @ IND 113 - 127
Dec 1, 2024 IND @ MEM 121 - 136
Oct 14, 2024 MEM @ IND 120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.5% more
Memphis: 16.8 vs Indiana: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +16.9% more
Memphis: 48.1 vs Indiana: 40.0
Blocks (L5) +14.5% more
Memphis: 5.0 vs Indiana: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Memphis: 41.4% vs Indiana: 35.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 122.0 113
IND Score 118.7 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 41.4 37.8 / 30.8
Assists 32.7 / 24.3 29.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.2 / 5.0 12.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 47.5 50.5 / 41.4
Free Throw % 85.3 / 68.8 81.8 / 86.4
Rebounding 40.0 / 48.1 46.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 16.8 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MEM
IND
MEM
ML
48% 47-50
57% 59-44
54% 45-38
50% 41-41
ATS
59% 57-40
63% 65-38
54% 45-38
50% 41-41
TTL
54% 52-45
70% 71-31-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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