CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
14-39 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
36-19 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
HORNETS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -8.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
CHA By 1-7 points
13.5%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
25.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
109.6
CHARLOTTE
Denver
117.73
DENVER
Simulated Score
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Denver
117
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.1
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
CHA @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 7, 2025
DEN @ CHA
115 - 106
Feb 20, 2025
CHA @ DEN
115 - 129
Feb 1, 2025
DEN @ CHA
107 - 104
Jan 1, 2024
CHA @ DEN
93 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+49.1% more
Denver: 32.5
vs
Charlotte: 21.8
Blocks (L5)
+20.1% more
Denver: 4.8
vs
Charlotte: 4.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+14.7%
Denver: 54.7%
vs
Charlotte: 40.0%
Steals (L5)
+12.1% more
Denver: 8.7
vs
Charlotte: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
109.6
115
DEN Score
117.7
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 33.0
44.2 / 40.5
Assists
32.5 / 21.8
29.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
54.7 / 40.0
50.0 / 43.4
Free Throw %
83.4 / 87.4
75.0 / 82.4
Rebounding
47.3 / 44.2
55.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.7
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 15.2
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CHA
DEN
CHA
ML
54%
57-48
61%
60-39
55%
47-39
48%
40-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
60%
59-40
55%
47-39
48%
40-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
58%
57-42
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
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