MIAMI
HEATMIA
25-27 | Road
113
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
29-26 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
HEAT
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
MIA By 1-7 points
17.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
7.2%
DAL By 1-7 points
27.0%
DAL By 8-14 points
23.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
106.91
MIAMI
Dallas
112.62
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.7
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
MIA @ DAL
108 - 118
Nov 24, 2025
DAL @ MIA
102 - 106
Feb 13, 2025
MIA @ DAL
113 - 118
Nov 24, 2024
DAL @ MIA
118 - 123
Apr 10, 2024
DAL @ MIA
111 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+86.0% more
Dallas: 7.4
vs
Miami: 4.0
Steals (L5)
+48.7% more
Dallas: 8.2
vs
Miami: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.8%
Dallas: 41.6%
vs
Miami: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.2%
Dallas: 49.1%
vs
Miami: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
106.9
113
DAL Score
112.6
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.6 / 31.9
36.1 / 27.8
Assists
24.8 / 24.2
28.0 / 23.0
Blocks
7.4 / 4.0
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 41.9
51.1 / 47.3
Free Throw %
75.2 / 80.0
81.3 / 65.4
Rebounding
39.2 / 46.4
40.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.2 / 5.5
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 13.4
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIA
DAL
MIA
ML
62%
63-39
48%
46-50
54%
44-37
59%
48-34
ATS
67%
68-34
51%
49-47
54%
44-37
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
60-41-1
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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