CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
13-38 | Road
86
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
26-29 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
MAGIC
0%
HORNETS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
204.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.2
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.2 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -8.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
CHA By 1-7 points
13.4%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.6%
ORL By 1-7 points
25.1%
ORL By 8-14 points
26.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
97.97
CHARLOTTE
Orlando
106.19
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Charlotte
111
CHARLOTTE
Orlando
110
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.2
D
Sim
Hornets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 204.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
CHA @ ORL
90 - 121
Mar 19, 2026
ORL @ CHA
111 - 130
Jan 22, 2026
CHA @ ORL
124 - 97
Dec 26, 2025
CHA @ ORL
120 - 105
Oct 30, 2025
ORL @ CHA
123 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+48.0% more
Orlando: 9.5
vs
Charlotte: 6.4
Blocks (L5)
+32.0% more
Orlando: 5.2
vs
Charlotte: 4.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Orlando: 46.3%
vs
Charlotte: 43.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Charlotte: 79.4%
vs
Orlando: 75.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
98.0
86
ORL Score
106.2
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 33.4
32.6 / 30.8
Assists
21.8 / 23.5
22.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.0
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 43.0
41.1 / 39.5
Free Throw %
75.1 / 79.4
73.7 / 93.3
Rebounding
40.2 / 42.6
52.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.5 / 6.4
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 14.0
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
CHA
ORL
CHA
ML
61%
65-42
61%
60-39
56%
51-40
48%
40-44
ATS
64%
68-38-1
60%
59-40
56%
51-40
48%
40-44
TTL
57%
61-46
58%
57-42
100%
91-0
100%
84-0
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