CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
43-10 | Road
131
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
17-37 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.1
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.1 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -12.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
20.0%
CLE By 8-14 points
27.2%
TOR By 1-7 points
7.9%
TOR By 8-14 points
2.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
123.01
CLEVELAND
Toronto
110.92
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
117
CLEVELAND
Toronto
114
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.1
D
Sim
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
Cleveland: 28.6
vs
Toronto: 25.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.7% more
Cleveland: 15.6
vs
Toronto: 14.0
Steals (L5)
+8.2% more
Cleveland: 8.3
vs
Toronto: 7.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Cleveland: 39.8%
vs
Toronto: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
123.0
131
TOR Score
110.9
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 39.8
34.5 / 34.0
Assists
25.0 / 28.6
26.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 50.1
46.2 / 48.5
Free Throw %
79.2 / 81.9
66.7 / 85.0
Rebounding
44.6 / 48.0
39.0 / 53.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.3
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 15.6
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
55%
57-47
60%
69-46
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
67%
75-37-3
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
68-47
100%
87-0
100%
99-0
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