PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
26-27 | Road
111
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
33-20 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
SUNS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PHX By 1-7 points
24.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
14.0%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
109.08
PHOENIX
Houston
109.87
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Houston
109
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ PHX
119 - 105
Jan 5, 2026
PHX @ HOU
97 - 100
Dec 5, 2025
PHX @ HOU
98 - 117
Nov 24, 2025
HOU @ PHX
114 - 92
Mar 30, 2025
HOU @ PHX
148 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+16.0% more
Houston: 49.4
vs
Phoenix: 42.6
Turnovers (L5)
+13.6% more
Houston: 13.4
vs
Phoenix: 11.8
Blocks (L5)
+38.0% more
Phoenix: 7.7
vs
Houston: 4.7
Assists (L5)
+29.1% more
Phoenix: 29.7
vs
Houston: 21.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
109.1
111
HOU Score
109.9
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 33.7
31.0 / 38.5
Assists
21.1 / 29.7
32.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.7 / 7.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 44.4
47.4 / 51.7
Free Throw %
76.5 / 83.2
58.3 / 81.8
Rebounding
49.4 / 42.6
47.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.6
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.8
11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PHX
HOU
PHX
ML
61%
69-44
57%
60-45
59%
51-35
51%
45-43
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
59-43-3
59%
51-35
51%
45-43
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
61-42-2
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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