PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
23-31 | Road
121
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
35-19 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
POR By 1-7 points
11.4%
POR By 8-14 points
3.6%
DEN By 1-7 points
23.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
114.08
PORTLAND
Denver
123.59
DENVER
Simulated Score
Portland
114
PORTLAND
Denver
119
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 6, 2026
POR @ DEN
132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026
POR @ DEN
112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026
DEN @ POR
157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025
DEN @ POR
107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025
DEN @ POR
109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+52.8% more
Denver: 35.7
vs
Portland: 23.4
Steals (L5)
+25.5% more
Denver: 8.5
vs
Portland: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+12.2%
Denver: 56.6%
vs
Portland: 44.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+10.8% more
Denver: 46.5
vs
Portland: 41.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
114.1
121
DEN Score
123.6
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 35.2
39.5 / 36.8
Assists
35.7 / 23.4
26.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.9
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
56.6 / 44.4
51.0 / 45.7
Free Throw %
85.5 / 82.3
79.2 / 72.4
Rebounding
46.5 / 41.9
49.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.8
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 15.5
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
POR
DEN
POR
ML
54%
57-48
53%
56-49
55%
47-39
55%
49-40
ATS
63%
65-38-2
62%
65-39-1
55%
47-39
55%
49-40
TTL
54%
56-48-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
89-0
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