MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
35-17 | Road
119
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
26-26 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
SUNS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
MEM By 1-7 points
19.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
8.6%
PHX By 1-7 points
27.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
22.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
116.26
MEMPHIS
Phoenix
120.79
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Phoenix
116
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHX @ MEM
131 - 105
Jan 7, 2026
PHX @ MEM
117 - 98
Oct 29, 2025
MEM @ PHX
114 - 113
Mar 10, 2025
PHX @ MEM
118 - 120
Feb 25, 2025
PHX @ MEM
148 - 151
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.9%
Phoenix: 83.9%
vs
Memphis: 76.0%
Steals (L5)
+32.8% more
Memphis: 8.8
vs
Phoenix: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+21.4% more
Memphis: 14.9
vs
Phoenix: 11.7
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Memphis: 48.2
vs
Phoenix: 42.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
116.3
119
PHX Score
120.8
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 40.2
27.3 / 30.8
Assists
27.1 / 25.6
35.0 / 22.0
Blocks
7.0 / 6.6
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 48.4
44.6 / 43.0
Free Throw %
83.9 / 76.0
81.8 / 77.8
Rebounding
42.8 / 48.2
42.0 / 60.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.8
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 14.9
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MEM
PHX
MEM
ML
57%
60-45
57%
59-44
51%
45-43
50%
41-41
ATS
58%
59-43-3
63%
65-38
51%
45-43
50%
41-41
TTL
59%
61-42-2
70%
71-31-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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