Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Nuggets POR @ DEN

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

23-30  |  Road

117
FINAL
Mon, Feb 10 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

34-19  |  Home

146
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Denver)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

25.1%

Nuggets Cover

74.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

POR By 1-7 points

15.8%

POR By 8-14 points

6.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.4%

DEN By 8-14 points

25.1%

AI Model Projected Score
114.81
PORTLAND
121.52
DENVER
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 236.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 POR @ DEN 132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026 POR @ DEN 112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026 DEN @ POR 157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025 DEN @ POR 107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025 DEN @ POR 109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +40.0% more
Denver: 31.5 vs Portland: 22.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Denver: 50.7 vs Portland: 46.4
Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Denver: 51.9% vs Portland: 43.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Denver: 39.7% vs Portland: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 114.8 117
DEN Score 121.5 146
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 32.5 32.0 / 40.5
Assists 31.5 / 22.5 44.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.5 / 5.4 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 43.8 65.9 / 45.5
Free Throw % 83.2 / 81.1 90.0 / 84.6
Rebounding 50.7 / 46.4 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.2 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 15.3 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
POR
DEN
POR
ML
54% 57-48
53% 56-49
55% 47-39
55% 49-40
ATS
63% 65-38-2
62% 65-39-1
55% 47-39
55% 49-40
TTL
54% 56-48-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 86-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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