TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
16-36 | Road
87
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
32-20 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
RAPTORS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TOR By 1-7 points
21.1%
TOR By 8-14 points
10.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
20.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
109.6
TORONTO
Houston
112.94
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
122
TORONTO
Houston
114
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Raptors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ HOU
99 - 113
Feb 9, 2025
TOR @ HOU
87 - 94
Dec 22, 2024
HOU @ TOR
114 - 110
Feb 9, 2024
HOU @ TOR
104 - 107
Feb 2, 2024
TOR @ HOU
106 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.9% more
Houston: 45.0
vs
Toronto: 39.5
Blocks (L5)
+13.3% more
Houston: 5.6
vs
Toronto: 5.0
Steals (L5)
+25.2% more
Toronto: 8.7
vs
Houston: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Toronto: 29.5
vs
Houston: 23.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
109.6
87
HOU Score
112.9
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 39.4
26.3 / 19.0
Assists
23.1 / 29.5
17.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.6 / 5.0
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 45.1
36.0 / 36.7
Free Throw %
75.5 / 78.0
78.6 / 76.5
Rebounding
45.0 / 39.5
58.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.5 / 8.7
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.1
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
61%
69-44
55%
57-47
59%
51-35
55%
48-39
ATS
62%
70-43
61%
62-40-2
59%
51-35
55%
48-39
TTL
51%
58-55
60%
62-42
100%
86-0
100%
87-0
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