Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Lakers IND @ LAL

INDIANA

PACERSIND

29-21  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sat, Feb 8 • 4:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

30-19  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
PACERS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Los Angeles)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

41.6%

Lakers Cover

58.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

IND By 1-7 points

22.9%

IND By 8-14 points

12.0%

LAL By 1-7 points

26.9%

LAL By 8-14 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
117.57
INDIANA
119.7
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
INDIANA
116
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 LAL @ IND 137 - 130
Mar 6, 2026 IND @ LAL 117 - 128
Mar 26, 2025 LAL @ IND 120 - 119
Feb 8, 2025 IND @ LAL 117 - 124
Mar 29, 2024 LAL @ IND 90 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.7% more
Los Angeles: 14.7 vs Indiana: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Los Angeles: 41.0% vs Indiana: 31.1%
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Los Angeles: 45.5 vs Indiana: 41.6
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Los Angeles: 53.0% vs Indiana: 47.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 117.6 117
LAL Score 119.7 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 31.1 33.3 / 31.6
Assists 28.0 / 30.0 29.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 53.0 / 47.1 52.3 / 42.5
Free Throw % 78.5 / 80.4 91.3 / 96.9
Rebounding 45.5 / 41.6 46.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.1 / 11.2 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 11.8 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
IND
LAL
IND
ML
61% 68-43
48% 47-50
54% 49-42
54% 45-38
ATS
61% 67-43-1
59% 57-40
54% 49-42
54% 45-38
TTL
61% 66-43-2
54% 52-45
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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