Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Suns DEN @ PHX

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

33-19  |  Road

122
FINAL
Sat, Feb 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Footprint Center
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

26-25  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
NUGGETS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Phoenix)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

42.3%

Suns Cover

57.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

DEN By 1-7 points

23.1%

DEN By 8-14 points

12.2%

PHX By 1-7 points

26.8%

PHX By 8-14 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
118.36
DENVER
120.3
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
107
DENVER
113
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.9
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.7% more
Phoenix: 7.5 vs Denver: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
Phoenix: 85.8% vs Denver: 77.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Phoenix: 38.3% vs Denver: 36.8%
Steals (L5) +17.1% more
Denver: 7.7 vs Phoenix: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 118.4 122
PHX Score 120.3 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 36.8 34.0 / 45.7
Assists 28.1 / 33.3 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 7.5 / 4.8 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 53.4 38.8 / 48.9
Free Throw % 85.8 / 77.7 80.0 / 94.1
Rebounding 42.7 / 48.0 43.0 / 56.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.7 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 13.9 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DEN
PHX
DEN
ML
57% 60-45
54% 57-48
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
ATS
58% 59-43-3
63% 65-38-2
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
TTL
59% 61-42-2
54% 56-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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