MIAMI
HEATMIA
25-24 | Road
86
BROOKLYN
NETSBKN
17-34 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
NETS
100%
HEAT
--
NETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
18.7%
BKN By 1-7 points
22.9%
BKN By 8-14 points
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
104.09
MIAMI
Brooklyn
102.01
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
Miami
109
MIAMI
Brooklyn
115
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim
Nets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 206.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BKN @ MIA
110 - 126
Mar 3, 2026
BKN @ MIA
98 - 124
Dec 18, 2025
MIA @ BKN
106 - 95
Feb 7, 2025
MIA @ BKN
86 - 102
Jan 25, 2025
MIA @ BKN
106 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+27.5% more
Miami: 17.1
vs
Brooklyn: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+16.9% more
Miami: 48.1
vs
Brooklyn: 40.0
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Miami: 27.5
vs
Brooklyn: 24.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Miami: 37.7%
vs
Brooklyn: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
104.1
86
BKN Score
102.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 37.7
27.0 / 30.0
Assists
24.8 / 27.5
17.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.8
13.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 47.0
41.9 / 35.6
Free Throw %
75.3 / 78.1
77.8 / 83.3
Rebounding
40.0 / 48.1
57.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.7
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 17.1
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BKN
20-62-0
(24.4%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BKN
38-43-1
(46.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
MIA
BKN
MIA
ML
53%
50-45
48%
46-50
59%
48-34
59%
48-34
ATS
52%
48-44-3
51%
49-47
59%
48-34
59%
48-34
TTL
57%
54-41
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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