PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
22-24-9 | Road
3
NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
26-23-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Igor Shesterkin
#31 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Igor Shesterkin | None-None | 3.13 | 0.885 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.13
--
Save %
0.885
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
RANGERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)
PIT By 1 goal
10.4%
PIT By 2-3 goals
7.4%
NYR By 1 goal
19.6%
NYR By 2-3 goals
32.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.18
PITTSBURGH
New York
3.46
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.3
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
PIT @ NYR
2 - 3
Jan 31, 2026
NYR @ PIT
5 - 6
Oct 11, 2025
NYR @ PIT
6 - 1
Oct 7, 2025
PIT @ NYR
3 - 0
Feb 23, 2025
NYR @ PIT
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.5% more
New York: 30.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 23.7
Power Play % (L5)
+26.4%
New York: 32.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.1%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.7% more
New York: 17.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.1
Takeaways (L5)
+51.6% more
Pittsburgh: 6.1
vs
New York: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.2
3
NYR Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 16.1
15.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
55.1 / 57.2
54.5 / 45.5
Hits
30.2 / 23.7
24.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
32.4 / 6.1
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
26.0 / 29.9
24.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
2.9 / 6.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
PIT
NYR
PIT
ML
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
ATS
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
TTL
60%
3-2
25%
1-3
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
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