DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
26-25 | Road
127
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
36-15 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
CELTICS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
DAL By 1-7 points
21.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.4%
BOS By 1-7 points
27.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
20.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
112.85
DALLAS
Boston
116.04
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Dallas
109
DALLAS
Boston
113
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
DAL @ BOS
100 - 120
Feb 3, 2026
BOS @ DAL
110 - 100
Feb 6, 2025
DAL @ BOS
127 - 120
Jan 25, 2025
BOS @ DAL
122 - 107
Jun 17, 2024
DAL @ BOS
88 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.7% more
Boston: 7.8
vs
Dallas: 6.4
Assists (L5)
+19.9% more
Boston: 29.1
vs
Dallas: 24.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Boston: 38.6%
vs
Dallas: 32.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+17.4% more
Dallas: 13.4
vs
Boston: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
112.9
127
BOS Score
116.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 32.8
43.2 / 45.5
Assists
29.1 / 24.3
30.0 / 32.0
Blocks
6.1 / 5.7
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 45.7
51.7 / 55.7
Free Throw %
80.4 / 79.2
80.0 / 77.8
Rebounding
44.4 / 45.8
40.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.8 / 6.4
2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 13.4
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DAL
BOS
DAL
ML
57%
61-46
62%
63-39
53%
47-41
54%
44-37
ATS
59%
61-43-3
67%
68-34
53%
47-41
54%
44-37
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
60-41-1
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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