Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Trail Blazers SAC @ POR

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

25-25  |  Road

102
FINAL
Thu, Feb 6 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

22-29  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
KINGS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Portland)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

32.4%

Trail Blazers Cover

67.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

SAC By 1-7 points

19.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

8.6%

POR By 1-7 points

27.3%

POR By 8-14 points

22.4%

AI Model Projected Score
112.84
SACRAMENTO
117.4
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
117
SACRAMENTO
120
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SAC @ POR 110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026 POR @ SAC 117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025 POR @ SAC 98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025 SAC @ POR 133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025 SAC @ POR 123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.8% more
Portland: 7.7 vs Sacramento: 6.6
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
Portland: 47.1 vs Sacramento: 41.6
Free Throw % (L5) +8.5%
Portland: 85.6% vs Sacramento: 77.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Portland: 38.1% vs Sacramento: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 112.8 102
POR Score 117.4 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 34.7 40.0 / 33.3
Assists 24.7 / 25.8 25.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.4 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 47.7 43.3 / 42.0
Free Throw % 85.6 / 77.1 77.8 / 81.8
Rebounding 47.1 / 41.6 47.0 / 47.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.6 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 14.1 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SAC
POR
SAC
ML
53% 56-49
55% 55-45
55% 49-40
61% 50-32
ATS
62% 65-39-1
54% 52-45-3
55% 49-40
61% 50-32
TTL
56% 58-46-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 89-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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