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MIAMI

HEATMIA

24-24  |  Road

108
FINAL
Wed, Feb 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Wells Fargo Center
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

20-29  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
76ERS
0%
HEAT --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Philadelphia)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

47.4%

76ers Cover

52.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

MIA By 1-7 points

24.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

14.3%

PHI By 1-7 points

25.9%

PHI By 8-14 points

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
111.91
MIAMI
112.55
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
98
MIAMI
103
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 76ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 76ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 PHI @ MIA 109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026 MIA @ PHI 117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025 MIA @ PHI 127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025 PHI @ MIA 105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025 MIA @ PHI 118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.8% more
Philadelphia: 7.8 vs Miami: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Philadelphia: 40.5% vs Miami: 36.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Philadelphia: 50.9% vs Miami: 47.0%
Turnovers (L5) +18.9% more
Miami: 14.6 vs Philadelphia: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 111.9 108
PHI Score 112.6 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 36.0 30.0 / 41.2
Assists 28.6 / 28.8 22.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.8 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 47.0 38.5 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 77.2 75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 45.1 39.0 / 54.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.5 14.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 14.6 5.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
63% 69-40
48% 46-50
48% 45-48
59% 48-34
ATS
65% 71-38
51% 49-47
48% 45-48
59% 48-34
TTL
55% 60-49
59% 57-39
100% 93-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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