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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

34-16  |  Road

138
FINAL
Wed, Feb 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

16-34  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

71.6%

Raptors Cover

28.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

23.9%

TOR By 1-7 points

17.4%

TOR By 8-14 points

7.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122.98
MEMPHIS
117.28
TORONTO
Simulated Score
114
MEMPHIS
119
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.7
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 TOR @ MEM 128 - 96
Nov 2, 2025 MEM @ TOR 104 - 117
Feb 5, 2025 MEM @ TOR 138 - 107
Dec 26, 2024 TOR @ MEM 126 - 155
Jan 22, 2024 MEM @ TOR 108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
Memphis: 11.0 vs Toronto: 7.4
Rebounding (L5) +15.7% more
Memphis: 48.0 vs Toronto: 40.5
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Memphis: 14.8 vs Toronto: 13.3
Blocks (L5) +9.7% more
Memphis: 5.7 vs Toronto: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 123.0 138
TOR Score 117.3 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 37.1 28.6 / 42.1
Assists 29.1 / 30.8 28.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.7 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 49.2 39.8 / 52.8
Free Throw % 83.4 / 80.2 89.5 / 73.7
Rebounding 40.5 / 48.0 34.0 / 61.0
Steals 7.4 / 11.0 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 14.8 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MEM
TOR
MEM
ML
55% 57-47
57% 59-44
55% 48-39
50% 41-41
ATS
61% 62-40-2
63% 65-38
55% 48-39
50% 41-41
TTL
60% 62-42
70% 71-31-1
100% 87-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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