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ORLANDO

MAGICORL

24-27  |  Road

130
FINAL
Wed, Feb 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

25-24  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
MAGIC --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Sacramento)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

14.6%

Kings Cover

85.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

ORL By 1-7 points

9.9%

ORL By 8-14 points

2.9%

SAC By 1-7 points

22.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
101.7
ORLANDO
112.25
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
111
ORLANDO
113
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 SAC @ ORL 117 - 121
Feb 19, 2026 ORL @ SAC 131 - 94
Mar 29, 2025 SAC @ ORL 91 - 121
Feb 5, 2025 ORL @ SAC 130 - 111
Mar 23, 2024 SAC @ ORL 109 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.8% more
Sacramento: 27.3 vs Orlando: 21.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.1%
Sacramento: 78.1% vs Orlando: 68.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Sacramento: 33.6% vs Orlando: 26.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Sacramento: 46.6% vs Orlando: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 101.7 130
SAC Score 112.3 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 26.0 37.0 / 51.6
Assists 27.3 / 21.2 23.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.4 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 40.8 50.0 / 56.8
Free Throw % 78.1 / 68.0 75.0 / 93.3
Rebounding 43.9 / 44.6 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.4 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 12.7 19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
ORL
SAC
ORL
ML
55% 55-45
61% 65-42
61% 50-32
56% 51-40
ATS
54% 52-45-3
64% 68-38-1
61% 50-32
56% 51-40
TTL
58% 57-42-1
57% 61-46
100% 82-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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