Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ 76ers DAL @ PHI

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

26-24  |  Road

116
FINAL
Tue, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Wells Fargo Center
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

19-29  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
76ERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

49.6%

76ers Cover

50.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DAL By 1-7 points

25.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

15.1%

PHI By 1-7 points

25.4%

PHI By 8-14 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
113.41
DALLAS
113.51
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
108
DALLAS
115
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 76ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 76ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 PHI @ DAL 123 - 108
Dec 20, 2025 DAL @ PHI 114 - 121
Mar 16, 2025 PHI @ DAL 130 - 125
Feb 4, 2025 DAL @ PHI 116 - 118
Mar 3, 2024 PHI @ DAL 120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +67.4% more
Philadelphia: 9.2 vs Dallas: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Philadelphia: 44.1% vs Dallas: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Philadelphia: 49.1% vs Dallas: 45.0%
Blocks (L5) +59.4% more
Dallas: 6.6 vs Philadelphia: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 113.4 116
PHI Score 113.5 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.1 / 32.6 33.3 / 33.3
Assists 24.4 / 24.5 37.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.7 / 6.6 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 45.0 54.7 / 47.1
Free Throw % 79.3 / 78.5 68.4 / 80.6
Rebounding 38.1 / 46.7 34.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.2 / 5.5 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 14.0 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DAL
PHI
DAL
ML
63% 69-40
62% 63-39
48% 45-48
54% 44-37
ATS
65% 71-38
67% 68-34
48% 45-48
54% 44-37
TTL
55% 60-49
59% 60-41-1
100% 93-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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