BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
35-15 | Road
112
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
40-9 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
CELTICS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
27.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
20.4%
CLE By 1-7 points
21.4%
CLE By 8-14 points
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
123.52
BOSTON
Cleveland
120.33
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Boston
105
BOSTON
Cleveland
110
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ CLE
109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025
BOS @ CLE
117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025
CLE @ BOS
105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ BOS
107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025
CLE @ BOS
123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.9% more
Boston: 6.2
vs
Cleveland: 4.9
Rebounding (L5)
+20.8% more
Cleveland: 48.5
vs
Boston: 40.1
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Cleveland: 7.7
vs
Boston: 6.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Cleveland: 53.8%
vs
Boston: 48.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
123.5
112
CLE Score
120.3
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.0 / 40.1
28.2 / 35.4
Assists
33.2 / 30.7
18.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.2
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
53.8 / 48.2
39.6 / 40.8
Free Throw %
80.1 / 78.9
84.6 / 83.3
Rebounding
48.5 / 40.1
51.0 / 53.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.7
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 10.6
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
60%
69-46
57%
61-46
56%
55-44
53%
47-41
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
61-43-3
56%
55-44
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
68-47
56%
60-47
100%
99-0
100%
88-0
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