MIAMI
HEATMIA
24-23 | Road
124
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
21-29 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
BULLS
100%
HEAT
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
20.5%
CHI By 1-7 points
21.2%
CHI By 8-14 points
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
109.92
MIAMI
Chicago
106.66
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
106
MIAMI
Chicago
111
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.2% more
Chicago: 5.6
vs
Miami: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.4%
Chicago: 85.8%
vs
Miami: 75.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+8.5% more
Chicago: 16.2
vs
Miami: 14.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Chicago: 37.8%
vs
Miami: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
109.9
124
CHI Score
106.7
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 34.7
46.3 / 38.6
Assists
29.3 / 28.7
35.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 46.6
52.7 / 47.8
Free Throw %
85.8 / 75.4
81.8 / 80.8
Rebounding
47.4 / 45.7
43.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.3
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 14.9
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIA
CHI
MIA
ML
56%
54-42
48%
46-50
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
62-33-1
51%
49-47
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
56-40
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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