INDIANA
PACERSIND
28-20 | Road
89
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
21-29 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
PACERS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
27.3%
IND By 8-14 points
20.6%
POR By 1-7 points
21.2%
POR By 8-14 points
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
117.44
INDIANA
Portland
114.13
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
113
INDIANA
Portland
121
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
POR @ IND
127 - 119
Mar 8, 2026
IND @ POR
111 - 131
Feb 4, 2025
IND @ POR
89 - 112
Nov 27, 2024
POR @ IND
114 - 121
Jan 19, 2024
IND @ POR
115 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.2% more
Indiana: 6.9
vs
Portland: 4.1
Steals (L5)
+24.1% more
Indiana: 9.9
vs
Portland: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+19.4% more
Indiana: 31.7
vs
Portland: 25.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Indiana: 51.0%
vs
Portland: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
117.4
89
POR Score
114.1
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 34.6
37.8 / 20.8
Assists
25.5 / 31.7
23.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.1 / 6.9
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 51.0
44.6 / 42.0
Free Throw %
81.3 / 80.2
94.1 / 76.2
Rebounding
45.1 / 39.7
51.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.9
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.2
19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
IND
POR
IND
ML
53%
56-49
48%
47-50
55%
49-40
54%
45-38
ATS
62%
65-39-1
59%
57-40
55%
49-40
54%
45-38
TTL
56%
58-46-1
54%
52-45
100%
89-0
100%
83-0
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