FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
32-19-3 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
34-11-7 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lars Eller
#20 | Center@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.05 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.05
--
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
PANTHERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1 goal
19.3%
FLA By 2-3 goals
24.7%
WSH By 1 goal
14.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
3.54
FLORIDA
Washington
2.99
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ WSH
5 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 6
Mar 22, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.7% more
Florida: 27.9
vs
Washington: 20.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+19.8% more
Florida: 36.3
vs
Washington: 29.1
Power Play % (L5)
+17.5%
Florida: 30.3%
vs
Washington: 12.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+14.1% more
Washington: 14.0
vs
Florida: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
3.5
3
WSH Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 12.2
19.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
46.3 / 44.4
47.2 / 52.8
Hits
20.2 / 27.9
17.0 / 46.0
Power Play %
1276.0 / 3030.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.1 / 36.3
26.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 4.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
FLA
WSH
FLA
ML
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
Panthers Eyeing Vladimir Tarasenko as Insurance for Brad Marchan…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…