ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-27 | Road
132
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
25-24 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
PISTONS
0%
HAWKS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
ATL By 1-7 points
25.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
14.7%
DET By 1-7 points
25.7%
DET By 8-14 points
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
110.74
ATLANTA
Detroit
111.09
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
105
ATLANTA
Detroit
110
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.7% more
Detroit: 5.0
vs
Atlanta: 3.5
Steals (L5)
+18.2% more
Detroit: 10.9
vs
Atlanta: 9.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Detroit: 48.5%
vs
Atlanta: 45.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Detroit: 76.3%
vs
Atlanta: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
110.7
132
DET Score
111.1
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 32.3
33.3 / 43.2
Assists
27.5 / 27.2
31.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.5
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 45.2
51.8 / 51.9
Free Throw %
76.3 / 73.5
92.1 / 82.1
Rebounding
44.1 / 42.1
41.0 / 37.0
Steals
10.9 / 9.2
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 15.3
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
55%
64-53
50%
52-52
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
53%
55-48-1
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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