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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

26-23  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sun, Feb 2 • 3:30 PM ET
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

39-9  |  Home

144
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.1
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Cleveland)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

27.2%

Cavaliers Cover

72.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -6.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.8%

CLE By 1-7 points

26.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
115.66
DALLAS
121.72
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
DALLAS
113
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.1
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 DAL @ CLE 130 - 120
Mar 13, 2026 CLE @ DAL 138 - 105
Feb 2, 2025 DAL @ CLE 101 - 144
Jan 3, 2025 CLE @ DAL 134 - 122
Feb 27, 2024 DAL @ CLE 119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.3% more
Cleveland: 8.1 vs Dallas: 5.3
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
Cleveland: 30.2 vs Dallas: 25.7
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Cleveland: 82.7% vs Dallas: 77.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Cleveland: 52.2% vs Dallas: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 115.7 101
CLE Score 121.7 144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 38.4 57.8 / 20.9
Assists 30.2 / 25.7 39.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.3 / 8.4 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.2 / 48.1 57.0 / 38.8
Free Throw % 82.7 / 77.7 75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 47.2 / 47.5 51.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.1 / 5.3 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 16.6 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DAL
CLE
DAL
ML
60% 69-46
62% 63-39
56% 55-44
54% 44-37
ATS
67% 75-37-3
67% 68-34
56% 55-44
54% 44-37
TTL
59% 68-47
59% 60-41-1
100% 99-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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