ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-26 | Road
127
INDIANA
PACERSIND
26-20 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
PACERS
0%
HAWKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.1
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.1 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -14.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
ATL By 1-7 points
5.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.3%
IND By 1-7 points
16.8%
IND By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
105.1
ATLANTA
Indiana
119.17
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
97
ATLANTA
Indiana
104
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.1
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ATL @ IND
124 - 129
Jan 26, 2026
IND @ ATL
116 - 132
Oct 31, 2025
ATL @ IND
128 - 108
Mar 8, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 120
Mar 6, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+72.2% more
Indiana: 5.5
vs
Atlanta: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+18.0% more
Indiana: 29.8
vs
Atlanta: 25.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.2%
Indiana: 41.8%
vs
Atlanta: 29.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Indiana: 52.0%
vs
Atlanta: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
105.1
127
IND Score
119.2
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 29.5
36.4 / 37.8
Assists
29.8 / 25.3
35.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 42.8
54.4 / 50.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 74.3
88.0 / 71.9
Rebounding
41.0 / 41.2
41.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.4 / 10.9
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 16.4
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ATL
IND
ATL
ML
48%
47-50
50%
52-52
54%
45-38
55%
48-40
ATS
59%
57-40
53%
55-48-1
54%
45-38
55%
48-40
TTL
54%
52-45
53%
55-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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