DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
29-19 | Road
107
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
12-33 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
HORNETS
100%
NUGGETS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
20.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
21.5%
CHA By 8-14 points
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
116.69
DENVER
Charlotte
113.58
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Charlotte
105
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
CHA @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 7, 2025
DEN @ CHA
115 - 106
Feb 20, 2025
CHA @ DEN
115 - 129
Feb 1, 2025
DEN @ CHA
107 - 104
Jan 1, 2024
CHA @ DEN
93 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+33.5% more
Denver: 32.3
vs
Charlotte: 21.5
Turnovers (L5)
+18.5% more
Denver: 16.4
vs
Charlotte: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+13.6%
Denver: 55.8%
vs
Charlotte: 42.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Denver: 40.0%
vs
Charlotte: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
116.7
107
CHA Score
113.6
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 40.0
34.6 / 18.9
Assists
21.5 / 32.3
31.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.0
6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 55.8
43.2 / 46.6
Free Throw %
79.5 / 86.7
76.5 / 90.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 42.1
51.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.1
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 16.4
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
DEN
CHA
DEN
ML
61%
60-39
54%
57-48
48%
40-44
55%
47-39
ATS
60%
59-40
63%
65-38-2
48%
40-44
55%
47-39
TTL
58%
57-42
54%
56-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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