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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

26-22  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Jan 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

23-24  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
MAVERICKS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

61.9%

Pistons Cover

38.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

20.2%

DET By 1-7 points

21.6%

DET By 8-14 points

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113.66
DALLAS
110.63
DETROIT
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
105
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 DET @ DAL 114 - 116
Nov 1, 2025 DAL @ DET 110 - 122
Mar 21, 2025 DET @ DAL 117 - 123
Jan 31, 2025 DAL @ DET 102 - 117
Apr 12, 2024 DET @ DAL 107 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.1% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs Detroit: 4.5
Assists (L5) +14.2% more
Dallas: 28.5 vs Detroit: 24.4
Rebounding (L5) +8.5% more
Dallas: 48.3 vs Detroit: 44.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Dallas: 41.0% vs Detroit: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 113.7 102
DET Score 110.6 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 41.0 25.7 / 33.3
Assists 24.4 / 28.5 18.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.5 / 6.1 6.0 / 13.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 51.0 44.3 / 42.5
Free Throw % 76.0 / 76.1 87.5 / 81.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 48.3 47.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.6 / 5.9 13.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 15.8 7.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
DAL
DET
DAL
ML
55% 64-53
62% 63-39
49% 47-49
54% 44-37
ATS
53% 60-54-3
67% 68-34
49% 47-49
54% 44-37
TTL
60% 70-46-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 96-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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