DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
28-19 | Road
137
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
19-27 | Home
134
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
76ERS
100%
NUGGETS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
18.3%
PHI By 1-7 points
23.2%
PHI By 8-14 points
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
116.79
DENVER
Philadelphia
114.94
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Denver
117
DENVER
Philadelphia
123
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.9
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHI @ DEN
96 - 124
Jan 5, 2026
DEN @ PHI
125 - 124
Jan 31, 2025
DEN @ PHI
137 - 134
Jan 21, 2025
PHI @ DEN
109 - 144
Jan 27, 2024
PHI @ DEN
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.1% more
Denver: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.1
Turnovers (L5)
+28.4% more
Denver: 15.1
vs
Philadelphia: 10.8
Rebounding (L5)
+17.2% more
Denver: 45.6
vs
Philadelphia: 37.7
Assists (L5)
+11.8% more
Denver: 28.9
vs
Philadelphia: 25.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
116.8
137
PHI Score
114.9
134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 33.8
52.5 / 52.2
Assists
25.5 / 28.9
29.0 / 39.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 50.8
55.6 / 65.9
Free Throw %
81.5 / 82.8
81.3 / 94.4
Rebounding
37.7 / 45.6
27.0 / 35.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.2
12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 15.1
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DEN
PHI
DEN
ML
63%
69-40
54%
57-48
48%
45-48
55%
47-39
ATS
65%
71-38
63%
65-38-2
48%
45-48
55%
47-39
TTL
55%
60-49
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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