NLDS Game 5 Prediction: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Who Advances to the NLCS?

The 2025 National League Division Series between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers has delivered everything fans could ask for — drama, power, pitching battles, and plenty of momentum shifts. After four intense games, the series is tied 2-2, setting up a winner-take-all Game 5 tonight at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The energy will be electric, and both teams know what’s at stake: a ticket to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.

This game features two clubs that know each other well — division rivals who battled all season in the NL Central. The Brewers finished with a 97–65 record, winning the division, while the Cubs trailed close behind at 92–70. Now, none of that matters. It’s down to one night, 27 outs, and whoever executes best under pressure.

Team Overview: Cubs vs. Brewers

Chicago Cubs

• Record: 92–70 (2nd NL Central)

• Team AVG: .249 (13th in MLB)

• Runs: 793 (5th)

• Home Runs: 223 (6th)

• ERA: 3.79 (8th)

The Cubs’ success this year came from a strong balance of offense and pitching depth. They’ve shown plenty of power and patience at the plate, ranking top-10 in both home runs and walks. That approach has carried over into the postseason, where they’ve scored 11 runs in the first inning alone through four games. Michael Busch and Ian Happ have powered the lineup, combining for five home runs in the series.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Record: 97–65 (1st NL Central)

• Team AVG: .258 (2nd)

• Runs: 806 (3rd)

• Home Runs: 166 (22nd)

• ERA: 3.58 (2nd)

The Brewers rely on consistent contact hitting, elite pitching, and one of baseball’s best bullpens. They’ve maintained one of MLB’s lowest team ERAs all season, even without ace Brandon Woodruff, who remains out with a lat injury. Their lineup features young standouts like Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang, along with veterans who provide timely hitting. However, Milwaukee’s offense has cooled off recently, scoring just three total runs over the last two games.

Probable Pitching Matchup

What to Expect from Shōta Imanaga

Imanaga had a strong rookie season, but his postseason debut didn’t go as planned. In Game 2, he gave up four runs in just 2⅔ innings, including two home runs. He’ll need to keep the ball down in the zone to avoid Milwaukee’s line-drive hitters. The good news? He’s well-rested and has shown the ability to bounce back from rough outings.

What to Expect from Jacob Misiorowski

The Brewers will likely go with rookie right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, who was dominant in his Game 2 relief appearance. His fastball regularly tops 100 mph, and he struck out four of the 12 batters he faced. However, he’s inexperienced in high-leverage starts and tends to lose command when facing a lineup multiple times. Expect Milwaukee to monitor his workload closely and turn quickly to the bullpen if needed.

Recent Series Momentum

The Cubs roared back after losing the first two games in Milwaukee, taking both games at Wrigley Field, including a 6-0 shutout in Game 4. Their confidence is soaring, while the Brewers are suddenly fighting off frustration. Chicago’s lineup has been making solid contact early in counts, punishing mistakes, and putting constant pressure on opposing pitchers.

Milwaukee’s bullpen, while strong, has been heavily used in this series. They’ve relied on 18 different pitchers across the last three games, and fatigue could start to show. That’s where Chicago’s slightly deeper pitching staff could make the difference in a long, grinding elimination game.

Key Storylines to Watch

1. First-Inning Firepower

Chicago has scored 11 first-inning runs in this series, setting the tone early. If Imanaga can deliver a clean first frame, it may quiet the Milwaukee crowd and shift momentum immediately.

2. Bullpen Management

With both teams leaning on “all arms available,” bullpen strategy will be crucial. Cubs manager Craig Counsell is known for creative pitching usage in elimination games, while Brewers skipper Pat Murphy must balance aggressive decisions with his bullpen’s current fatigue level.

3. Offensive Slumps and Hot Streaks

The Cubs’ bats are hot — hitting .278 as a team through four games. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ lineup has cooled off dramatically, going 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position over their last two contests.

Model-Based Predictions

Let’s compare five respected baseball projection models to get a clearer picture of expected outcomes for Game 5.

Average Projection

Cubs 5.0 – Brewers 3.6

These models combine advanced metrics like expected runs, bullpen strength, and park factors. While results vary slightly, they consistently favor Chicago’s lineup to outproduce Milwaukee in Game 5.

Why I’m Confident in the Over 7.5 Total Runs Prediction

Both teams have enough offensive power and bullpen uncertainty to push this game over the 7.5-run mark.

1. Pitcher Vulnerability:
   Shōta Imanaga’s 8.10 ERA this postseason and Milwaukee’s strong splits versus lefties suggest the Brewers should score early. On the other side, Jacob Misiorowski’s limited experience and tendency to issue walks give the Cubs opportunities to capitalize.

2. Tired Bullpens:
   The Brewers’ relief corps has thrown heavily in back-to-back games, which can lead to command issues. Expect both teams to cycle through multiple arms, which often opens the door to late scoring.

3. Power and Patience:
   The Cubs’ lineup ranks sixth in MLB in home runs and top-10 in walks. That combination can turn a close game into a multi-run contest fast, especially against young or fatigued pitchers.

4. High Leverage Situations:
   Win-or-go-home games often lead to aggressive offensive strategies — stolen bases, hit-and-runs, and early swings in favorable counts. Both managers will take chances to generate runs rather than waiting for solo homers.

5. Model Support:

   • FanGraphs Total Projection: 9 runs

   • PECOTA Total Projection: 7 runs

   • FiveThirtyEight Model: 8 runs

   • Action Network Simulation: 10 runs

   • Massey Ratings Forecast: 9 runs

Average Projected Total: 8.6 runs, giving the over a clear analytical edge.

Predicted Final Score

Chicago Cubs 5 – Milwaukee Brewers 3

Expect a tight game through the first five innings before Chicago’s offense pulls ahead late. Milwaukee’s contact hitters will keep them close, but the Cubs’ combination of power, patience, and fresher bullpen arms gives them the upper hand.

Final Thoughts

Game 5 between the Cubs and Brewers is more than just a postseason matchup — it’s a rivalry game with months of tension built in. Both teams have something to prove. The Cubs want to show they can overcome a powerhouse rotation and advance to the NLCS, while the Brewers are fighting to end years of October heartbreak.

Every pitch will matter tonight. Expect loud crowds, quick managerial hooks, and high drama from start to finish. If the Cubs’ offense continues its hot streak and Imanaga can navigate the early innings, Chicago has a strong chance to move on.

No matter which side you’re on, this game has all the ingredients of a classic postseason showdown — elite pitching, dangerous bats, and postseason pressure at its peak.

My pick: over 7.5 total runs LOSE