The NHL season winds down with a matchup between the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks and the playoff-hopeful Ottawa Senators. The Senators are heavily favored at home, but the Blackhawks might be looking to play spoiler. Let’s leverage AI models, analyze team trends, and consider injuries to make the most informed prediction for this game.

AI Model Consensus:

  • BetQL: Ottawa Senators -2.5 goals
  • ESPN: Ottawa Senators -2.5 goals
  • SportsLine: Ottawa Senators -2.5 goals
  • The Hockey News: Ottawa Senators heavy favorite (predicted score not available)
  • Ottawa Senators 71.2% win probability (predicted score: Ottawa Senators 4.24 – Chicago Blackhawks 2.13)

The AI models overwhelmingly favor Ottawa, with an average point spread of -2.5 goals aligning with the moneyline odds (-195).

Pythagorean Theorem Perspective:

Expected wins/losses based on points scored and allowed provide some context:

  • Chicago Blackhawks: 18.4 wins, 59.6 losses (based on current record)
  • Ottawa Senators: 27.2 wins, 49.8 losses (based on current record)

While Ottawa’s record is better, the Pythagorean projection suggests a closer matchup than the odds imply.

Injury Report:

  • Chicago Blackhawks: Colin Blackwell (upper body) is questionable, but his absence shouldn’t significantly impact their offense. Reese Johnson (concussion) is out.
  • Ottawa Senators: Thomas Chabot (lower body) is questionable. His absence would be a blow to their defense.

Trend Watch:

Recent form is a tale of two teams:

  • Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 games.

Home Court Advantage:

The Senators hold a strong 19-16-2 home record this season.


Considering all factors, our projected score is:

Ottawa Senators 4 – Chicago Blackhawks 2


  • The Senators’ overall talent and home ice advantage favor them.
  • The Blackhawks’ struggles and injuries make it difficult for them to compete.
  • The point spread (-2.5 goals) seems accurate, potentially widening if Ottawa gets hot offensively.

Caveats and Considerations:

  • If Thomas Chabot is out for Ottawa, it could weaken their defense and open up scoring opportunities for Chicago.
  • The Blackhawks might be motivated to play spoiler and end the season on a positive note.

Beyond the Numbers:

While AI models and analytics offer valuable insights, intangibles like the Blackhawks’ desire to avoid another loss and the Senators’ potential overlooking of a lesser opponent can influence the outcome. However, the Senators’ overall talent and home ice edge make them heavy favorites.

Pick: Take Ottawa Senators -195 Moneyline. ***WINNER***