Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving and survived explaining why parlays are bad to your family at the table. We’re back with a fresh 6-pack for the weekend, nothing forced, just spots where the numbers actually line up with what we’re seeing on ATSwins.ai. Same deal as always: keep the units reasonable, don’t chase, and let the edges do the work. Here are the six picks we like plus a bonus prop pick and the thinking behind each one.
UNLV vs Boise State — Pick: UNLV +6.5
On paper, it’s strength-on-strength: Boise’s the more balanced team (8–4, scoring 30.8 ppg and allowing 23.2 ppg) while UNLV is 10–2 with a top-15 scoring offense at 37.2 ppg but a leaky defense giving up 28.1 ppg. Boise has the history (12–3 in the series, 56–31 win over UNLV at home earlier this season) and the blue-turf edge, but this version of UNLV is far more live than past Rebels teams, with Colandrea, Jai’Den Thomas, and Jaden Bradley driving an offense that can score quickly and keep them inside one score even if they’re chasing. The Broncos’ QB situation isn’t totally clean either, with Maddux Madsen’s health still a talking point and the door open to more variance if they need snaps from the backup again. Add in cold mid-40s weather in Boise with some rain around the window, which tends to favor lower scoring and makes every point you’re getting more valuable. I’m taking UNLV +6.5.
North Texas vs Tulane — Pick: Over 66.5
This is the AAC title game at Yulman in New Orleans, matching the nation’s No. 1 offense in North Texas (46.4 points and 516 yards per game, first in FBS) against a solid but not dominant Tulane defense that still gives up 22.8 points and 372 yards per game. North Texas plays fast (top-25 in seconds per play) and extremely efficiently, with QB Drew Mestemaker (3,835 passing yards), RB Caleb Hawkins (1,216 rushing), and WR Wyatt Young (1,203 receiving) driving an attack that leads the country in points per play and red-zone scoring. Tulane isn’t some plodding rock fight offense either: Jake Retzlaff has thrown for 2,700+ yards, leads them in rushing, and the Green Wave average 28.7 points on 6.2 yards per play behind a strong offensive line. With both teams healthy at the key skill spots and no headline offensive starters ruled out on the latest injury reports, the core scoring engines are intact.
Matchup and history both lean toward points. Every meeting in this series since 2013 has gone over the total, including last year’s 45–37 shootout (82 points) where Tulane’s offense had no trouble finishing drives and North Texas moved the ball consistently. This year’s version features an even more explosive Mean Green offense plus a North Texas defense that, while improved, still gives up 26.4 points per game and struggles to get off the field on third down (opponents convert ~46%). Tulane’s balanced attack and home field should keep them trading scores rather than turtling. The only mild drag is the weather: cool and on-and-off rain in New Orleans, but no sign of extreme wind or conditions bad enough to completely kill the passing game. Given pace, efficiency, and the “empty the playbook” nature of a conference title game with CFP implications, I’m backing Over 66.5.
Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan — Pick: Western Michigan ML
Western Michigan comes in 8–4 and 7–1 in the MAC, allowing just 18.7 points and 302.3 yards per game, with one of the better defenses in the league and a run game that’s built perfectly for a neutral-site title game at Ford Field. QB Broc Lowry is basically a QB/RB hybrid: 1,572 passing yards plus 875 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, and WMU as a whole is averaging about 189 rushing yards per game, with games like NIU where three different Broncos went over 100 on the ground. Miami already beat Western 26–17 back in Oxford, but that was at home, with DeQuan Finn at QB, and WMU actually led 17–9 going into the fourth before Miami flipped it with a strip-sack and late surge – so the Broncos have already shown they can win the trenches in this matchup. Since then, Western has ripped off four straight wins and is 8–1 over its last nine, while staying comparatively healthier; Miami’s offense has improved with Thomas Gotkowski, but they’re still dealing with multiple questionables/outs on offense, and Finn has left the team altogether. Miami’s pass rush and big-play WR Kam Perry absolutely keep this from being a “free square,” but in a dome where weather won’t bail out either side, WMU’s elite QB run game, better overall health, and top-end defensive metrics line up with why the market has them as a small favorite. Backing the Broncos on the moneyline is a solid play.
Bengals vs Bills — Pick: Under 53
The matchup leans toward a slower, more run-heavy script than the raw season-long points per game suggest. On paper, this looks like a shootout: Buffalo is scoring 28.1 points per game (top-five in the league), while Cincinnati is at 23.3. But look a layer deeper and you start to see an under game: the Bills’ defense is quietly top-15 in scoring (21.6 allowed per game) and top-10 overall by most metrics, while the Bengals’ offense, even with Burrow back, grades only middle of the pack (16th in scoring). The real key is how both teams are likely to move the ball: Buffalo’s best edge is James Cook against a Bengals front that ranks 31st vs the run and has allowed 100+ rushing yards in every game but the opener, which screams “Allen + Cook grind drives, not bombs away.” On the other side, Zac Taylor has leaned into Chase Brown as a volume back (six straight games with 100+ scrimmage yards), and with Burrow just back from the long toe layoff and still playing with a protective plate, Cincinnati’s passing game has been efficient but more controlled than hyper-aggressive.The weather helps the under too: temps in the high-20s with snow showing up in the afternoon in Orchard Park typically mean footing issues, more runs, and more conservative red-zone playcalling than what you’d see in a dome. And the recent head-to-head history between Burrow and Allen supports a lower total: 27–10 in the 2022 playoff game and 24–18 in the 2023 regular-season meeting, both landing well under 50. I’m backing Under 53.
Bears vs Packers — Pick: Bears +7
Green Bay is legit (8–3–1) and Jordan Love has been efficient as hell this year with 2,794 yards, 19 TD and just 3 INT, good for a 104.3 rating, but Chicago isn’t some soft underdog at 9–3 with Caleb Williams sitting at 2,700+ pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT and adding on the ground. The Bears have won 9 of their last 10 and covered in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog, including that Black Friday win in Philly as a 7.5-point dog, while Green Bay is just 3–3 ATS at Lambeau and has thrown in clunkers against weaker teams. Defensively, the Packers are still nasty (top 5 in yards per play allowed). Still, they’re banged up with DT Devonte Wyatt done for the year and multiple starters and key rotation guys (Lukas Van Ness, Savion Williams, several DBs) on the injury report. At the same time, the Bears’ defense has quietly climbed to middle of the pack in EPA/play and is riding a playmaking surge from guys like Nahshon Wright, who just won NFC Defensive Player of the Month after notching takeaways in five straight wins. Recent history says this matchup plays tight: both meetings last season were decided by a combined 3 points, including Chicago’s 24–22 win at Lambeau in January that snapped Green Bay’s long rivalry streak. Lambeau in December is never comfy, but both teams are built for the cold, and with Chicago’s offense live, their defense creating turnovers, and Green Bay dealing with a long injury list, taking a hot 9–3 Bears team plus a full touchdown in a divisional game with playoff seeding on the line is a position I’m comfortable backing.
Jets vs Dolphins — Pick: Jets +3
Miami comes in hot with three straight wins and four of their last five to get to 5–7, but that surge has mostly come at home; they’re just 1–4 on the road and now head to a cold MetLife where temps are projected around 40° at kickoff. The Dolphins’ offense has been league-average at best this year (20.6 points and ~300 yards per game), and Tua’s recent form hasn’t exactly screamed “lay points on the road,” including 157 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT and four sacks in last week’s grind vs the Saints. He also still carries that ugly cold-weather narrative, historically winless when temps drop into the mid-40s or below, which is exactly what he’s walking into on Sunday. The Jets are bad overall at 3–9, but the defense is quietly solid, allowing about 322 yards per game and ranking mid-pack in yards per play, so this profiles as a lower-scoring game where every point matters. In the first meeting, Miami won 27–21 in South Florida, but that game was more about Jets turnovers and 13 penalties than a talent gap, and now you flip to New York at home catching +3 with the market total knocked down into the low 40s. Justin Fields is listed as questionable but trending toward playing, and between his legs plus Breece Hall against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed over 117 rushing yards per game, the Jets have a real path to shorten this game and keep it inside a field goal. It’s not sweat free given how ugly the Jets’ offense can look, but in this weather and with Miami’s road issues, I’m riding with Jets +3.
BONUS: Jets vs Dolphins — Pick: De’Von Achane (MIA) OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards
Achane comes in absolutely rolling: he’s up to 1,034 rushing yards on 186 carries (5.6 YPC) in 12 games, averaging a little over 86 rushing yards per game, and he was just named AFC Offensive Player of the Month after piling up 495 rushing yards in November alone. Miami has shifted into a run-first groove during their three-game win streak, averaging 176.7 rushing yards per game, with Achane clearing 120+ rushing yards in each of those three and going for 134 on 22 carries last week against the Saints. The matchup is solid: the Jets are allowing 131.2 rushing yards per game on the season and just got gashed for 167 rushing yards by Atlanta, including 142 from Bijan Robinson, and their front seven has taken hits with Quincy Williams on IR and multiple linebackers/edges banged up. We also have positive head-to-head data: in the first meeting back in September, Miami gave Achane 20 carries for 99 yards and a TD in a 27–21 win. On the Dolphins’ side, the injury report is friendly to the over: Achane’s calf issue has trended to full participation with no game designation, while fellow RB Jaylen Wright is out, which consolidates the early-down work in Achane’s favor. The only real downside is game environment: cold outdoor divisional game at MetLife could slow the overall scoring and let the Jets sell out to stop the run, but that likely just reinforces Miami leaning on their best offensive weapon on a frozen field. With current usage, efficiency, and a weakened Jets front, I’m supporting the over 76.5.
That’s the card for this weekend, six spots where matchup, injuries, and the number all made sense. As always, stick to your unit size, don’t chase if the day gets weird, and be fine passing if the market moves against you. If you want to cross-check anything or build out a few more plays, you can always dive into the projections on ATSwins.ai and line it up with your own reads.