It’s the playoffs, so the edges get sharper and the mistakes get louder. This week’s Six Pack is six spots built on roles, matchups, and game script. If you want the numbers behind it, ATSwins.ai has the projections. Let’s get to it
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks — Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD
JSN has been Seattle’s top-volume receiver all year (163 targets, 119 catches, 1,793 yards, 10 TDs in 2025), and the usage has shown up where TDs actually come from (17 red-zone targets per FantasyPros’ 2025 red-zone tracker). The matchup history helps too: in the most recent Rams–Seahawks meeting at Lumen Field (Seattle’s 38–37 OT win on Dec. 18, 2025), JSN went 8-96-1 on 13 targets and scored through the air. For this one (NFC Championship, Jan. 25 in Seattle), the injury context leans toward quick-game/primary-read targets that fit JSN: Seattle’s left-tackle situation has been shaky in practice (including Charles Cross missing time), and Sam Darnold has been managing an oblique issue, both factors that can push throws underneath and to your high-usage separator. On the Rams side, their top pass rusher Byron Young has been held out of practice with a knee issue, which matters because any extra comfort for Darnold in scoring range is a direct boost to “anytime TD” outs. Add in typical Lumen conditions (cold but not crazy, around 44°F and partly sunny), and nothing about the environment screams “avoid passing TD props.” Bottom line: JSN’s season-long role and proven TD production vs. LAR at this venue make him a very reasonable anytime TD.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: Jarrett Stidham OVER 13.5 rushing yards
With Bo Nix out (fractured ankle), Stidham is starting and the cleanest way for Denver to keep him upright is to move the pocket and lean into quick reads, both of which naturally create “free” scramble chances when coverage holds for a beat. This matchup also sets up the kind of pressure-driven QB rushing you want for a low number like 13.5: New England’s defense is coming in hot up front (Chaisson’s pressure/sack production has been a major storyline this week), and Denver’s best counter is often letting the QB escape and steal yards rather than forcing hero throws into tight windows. The bar is tiny, two scrambles can get it done and Stidham has shown he can pop a rushing line when the game tilts that way (including a 50-yard rushing game in a prior start). Add in the Mile High elevation (5,280 feet) and a cold forecast (26°F forecasted for the high more like 17°F as the game goes on) that can make games a little more “survive and advance,” and I like the chances Denver ends up with a handful of broken-play opportunities where Stidham simply tucks it and grabs 6–10 at a time a couple of times.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams — Pick: Rams Moneyline
This Rams ML is very live because the matchup is lining up in a way that can quietly flip a “Seattle at home” game on its head. Seattle’s biggest red flag right now is the offensive tackle situation: starting LT Charles Cross and both backup options have been missing practice time, and even if Cross guts it out, a compromised edge in Lumen Field noise is exactly how drives die (false starts, quick pressures, rushed throws). Add in Sam Darnold being limited with an oblique issue and you’ve got a setup where Seattle’s offense can be a little more fragile than the “14–3” label suggests. On the other side, the Rams have the kind of offense that can travel: they finished #1 in points per game (30.5) and come in with Matthew Stafford fresh off a road playoff win at Carolina (34–31). The season series also screams “coin-flip rivalry”: Rams won 21–19 in Week 11, and Seattle answered with a 38–37 OT win in Week 16 at Lumen. If Seattle’s tackle situation stays shaky (or Cross is limited), the Rams don’t need a perfect defensive day, just enough stops for that high-octane offense to steal it as a short road dog.
Patriots vs. Broncos — Patriots -4
Denver is expected to start Jarrett Stidham with Bo Nix out (broken right ankle), and the market moved hard once that news hit. New England’s baseline profile also fits a road-favorite: they scored 28.8 points/game (2nd NFL) and allowed 18.8 points/game, and Drake Maye put up 4,394 pass yards, 31 TD, 8 INT with the league’s top QBR (77.1) in the regular season. The “yeah but Denver” counter is real: the Broncos defense has been nails (18.3 points allowed/game) and they’re at home at altitude in legit cold (forecast says around 17°F at kickoff), which can tighten games. Still, with Denver’s offense having to pivot to a backup QB, New England can win this the clean way (field position + defense + Maye avoiding the one back-breaking turnover). The Patriots are also 8-2 ATS over their last 10 road games. With all of this in mind, Patriots -4 is what I’m backing.
Seahawks vs. Rams — Matthew Stafford OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts
Stafford cleared this line in each of the Rams’ last two playoff games (both 42 attempts vs. Carolina and Chicago). He also just saw Seattle in Week 16 and aired it out with 49 attempts in the overtime shootout. On the season, he finished with 597 pass attempts across 17 games (35.1 per game)—basically already over the number before we even talk about matchup. The game setup points to volume too: it’s in Seattle with the Seahawks slight favorites and a mid/high total, implying a competitive script (aka not a “sit on the ball” game). And Seattle’s defense has been elite against the run (they’ve leaned into lighter packages and still posted top-tier run results), which often nudges teams toward the air, especially if early-down runs aren’t popping. The main “under” risk is the first Rams-Seahawks meeting: Stafford had only 28 attempts, and the Rams had the ball for just 22:11, so volume never had a chance. But with Stafford’s current trend (42/42/49 in three of the last four vs. SEA + playoffs) and a tight spread, 35+ attempts is the most likely game script, even if the efficiency isn’t pretty.
Seahawks vs. Rams — Cooper Kupp OVER 30.5 receiving yards
Kupp’s role/volume is “secondary option” in this Seattle offense, but this line is so low that he doesn’t need a monster game to clear it, he needs one clean chain-moving series or two. In the regular season he put up 47-593-2 (about 37.1 yards/game) and cleared 30.5 yards in 9 of 16 games, plus he just went 5-for-60 in Seattle’s Divisional Round win. Against the Rams specifically this season, he split it: 3/7 for 23 in the first meeting (miss), then 3/4 for 39 in the Week 16 overtime game at Lumen Field (cash), which matters because this matchup is back in the same building. On the “today” injury/lineup side, Seattle’s left tackle situation (Charles Cross + depth) and Sam Darnold’s oblique being managed could push the offense toward quicker, shorter throws, the exact kind of stuff that gets Kupp to 31 yards on 3–4 catches. Also, the Rams have been managing key defensive pieces (including edge Byron Young not practicing early in the week), which would further help Seattle’s pass game function. Net-net: with a recent 60-yard showing, a 37-yard season baseline, and prior success vs LAR at this venue, I’d going with Over 30.5.
That’s the Six Pack. Playoffs don’t care about vibes, stay disciplined, pick your spots, and let the games come to you. If you want the numbers before you fire, ATSwins.ai has the projections. See you at the Super Bowl.